Ten years following the UK entered into a hurried referendum that divided the nation and unleashed turmoil, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially fraught and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the political, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in academia but very few government figures or campaigners are willing to participate even with the essentials. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Both writes two essays that strive for neutrality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates cover flags and symbols, levies, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said the writer. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the idea that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters claim they support unification but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to reflect unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government should establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a feckless government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, justified points, he commented. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will eventually not succeed but each side has possesses important lessons to acquire from the opposing positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This involves your state. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
